Highlights
Since President Trump took office just over a month ago, uncertainty over economic policy has literally reached a new high according to some indicators. And yet, the impact on the markets remains relatively limited.
Overall, the economic backdrop remains fairly constructive, but highly fragile and uncertain, with the Trump administration's policies – and their true consequences for the economy – set to become clearer over the coming months.
In these circumstances, we believe that now is not the time to opt for any high-concentration strategies, and we encourage investors to think more in terms of diversification rather than trying to take a position based on a highly unpredictable U.S. President.
Thus, we maintain a neutral allocation across asset classes, with our base case still calling for a volatile year, but ultimately modest and similar returns between equities and bonds – essentially, what has happened since the start of the year.
Besides, trends in recent weeks have reduced our conviction about the ability of North American equities to outperform in the short term, prompting us to reduce the size of their overweight position.
Finally, we have exited our exposure to U.S. small caps. Although these stocks still offer attractive upside potential, it has become increasingly clear that for this to happen, we will need greater visibility on the cyclical backdrop, which is currently threatened by U.S. tariffs.