In this semi-annual update, the projected annual return for a benchmark balanced portfolio over 5 years is 5.9%, down form the 7.5% achieved over the past 5 years. This forecast is slightly lower than the 6.1% anticipated last spring. Explore long-term market expectations for major asset classes across 5-year, 10-year and 30-year investment horizons.
Staying on the sidelines waiting for a market correction? Are rate hikes bad for stocks? Does stock performance correlate with the political party in power? These are some of the common investment beliefs that our CIO Office fact-checks and puts into perspective.
September was not just the end of a quarter, but rather a turning point for the post-pandemic economy. Indeed, the U.S. Federal Reserve's first rate cut marks the end of the aggressive fight against inflation and the beginning of a new phase aimed at stabilizing the labour market.
The third quarter brought good news for investors, with considerable gains in most asset classes, although equities were confronted with much higher volatility than in the first half of the year. In the face of this turbulence, several lagging market segments managed to make up ground, as was the case not only for Canadian equities, but also for bonds, which performed particularly well over the period.
Today’s market upheaval, with Japan at its core, is causing ripples worldwide. The Japanese yen is soaring, the Nikkei 225 is diving over 12% daily, and neighboring markets like South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia are experiencing even sharper declines. What’s causing these dramatic shifts, and how did we get here?
To guide its tactical asset allocation decisions, our CIO Office has been using the A3 model since 2018, the objective of which was to translate a series of macroeconomic and financial indicators into a risk-taking recommendation over a tactical horizon. This report introduces its successor, the NBAAM (National Bank Asset Allocation Model,) which offers broader coverage of global macroeconomic conditions through a distinctive methodology. |
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