CIO Office
Learn more about the markets, the economy and current trends in the financial industry.
Moment of truth? | Base-Case Scenario | Summer 2024
The second quarter of 2024 was a positive one for the markets as a whole, with bonds joining stocks in their uptrend after a more difficult start to the year. However, gains remained rather uneven across equity markets, with the few technology giants accentuating their gains, while more cyclical energy, financial and industrial sectors ended the period with losses. Naturally, this environment proved more buoyant for the U.S. stock market, while Canadian equities underperformed significatly.
One thing at a time | Asset Allocation Strategy | June 2024
Despite some weaker-than-expected economic data, stock markets quickly regained their enthusiasm in May, after inflation ended a three-month run of upside surprises south of the border.
In the shorter term, we can expect to see the main central banks begin gradual cycles of rate cuts, which the markets could interpret as confirmation that a soft landing has been achieved.
Long-Term Investment Perspectives | Spring 2024
In this new semi-annual update, the anticipated annual return for a benchmark balanced portfolio over 5 years is 6.1%, which is similar to the realized return of 6.5% over the past 5 years. However, this forecast is lower than the 7.6% anticipated in the fall 2023 report. View long-term market expectations for major asset classes over a 5-year, 10-year and 30-year investment horizon, which form the basis of NBI’s strategic asset allocation and portfolio construction efforts.
Myths and Realities | As of March 29, 2024
Should investors fear recessions? Are GICs a risk-free alternative? Are rate hikes bad for stocks? These are some of the 19 common investment beliefs fact-checked and put into perspective by NBI's CIO Office.
Tactical asset allocation: Introducing NBAAM | Strategic report | April 2024
To guide its tactical asset allocation decisions, our CIO Office has been using the A3 model since 2018, the objective of which was to translate a series of macroeconomic and financial indicators into a risk-taking recommendation over a tactical horizon. This report introduces its successor, the NBAAM (National Bank Asset Allocation Model,) which offers broader coverage of global macroeconomic conditions through a distinctive methodology. |
What are the ripple effects from the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy? | Quick Take | March 13, 2023
Tensions have escalated in the market following the flash debacle at Silicon Valley Bank, but, for now, the negative consequences are mostly seen within the already struggling regional US banking sector. Nevertheless, here is our update on the situation.
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