CIO Office
Learn more about the markets, the economy and current trends in the financial industry.
Long-Term Investment Perspectives | Spring 2025
In this semi-annual update, the projected 10-year annual return for a balanced benchmark portfolio is 4.8%, compared to 6.6% over the past 10 years. Discover expectations for major asset classes over 10- and 30-year investment horizons, which are the foundation of our strategic asset allocation and portfolio construction.
Key charts on our radar | U.S. tariffs | April 3, 2025
At first glance, Canada seems to have been spared from the latest reciprocal tariff announcement. Although it is impossible to calculate an exact figure, the effective trade-weighted tariff rate on Canadian exports to the U.S. should remain below 5%. To put events in perspective, check out 8 key charts selected and commented on by our CIO Office.
Second thoughts | Asset Allocation Strategy | April 2025
The record uncertainty into which the Trump administration plunged the global economy has pushed the S&P 500 index into correction territory in March. What happens next will depend on the scope of the economic slowdown that is beginning to take shape. Against this backdrop where the probability of a recession has increased, we are maintaining a balanced allocation between equities and bonds.
World upside down | Base-Case Scenario | Spring 2025
In 2025, economic growth will be lower and inflation higher than expected due to increased U.S tariffs. Therefore, investors are encouraged to remain diversified rather than trying to anticipate an unpredictable U.S. administration. In this volatile environment, discover our new base case scenario, which maintains a balanced allocation between stocks and bonds.
Facts and Fiction | As of February 28, 2025
Selling in times of heightened uncertainty can protect investments from heavy losses? Should recessions be feared as they entail heavy financial losses? Is the ruling party decisive for the stock market? These are some of the common investment beliefs that our Chief Investment Office examines and puts into perspective.
Tactical asset allocation: Introducing NBAAM | Strategic report | April 2024
To guide its tactical asset allocation decisions, our CIO Office has been using the A3 model since 2018, the objective of which was to translate a series of macroeconomic and financial indicators into a risk-taking recommendation over a tactical horizon. This report introduces its successor, the NBAAM (National Bank Asset Allocation Model), which offers broader coverage of global macroeconomic conditions through a distinctive methodology. |
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