The highly volatile market environment that characterized most of 2022 continued into the first quarter of the new year, with economic data sending often contradictory messages. Read on for our latest quarterly base-case scenario, where we review the key market events of the past few months, our outlook for the coming quarter, and the key risks underlying these expectations.
Tensions have escalated in the market following the flash debacle at Silicon Valley Bank, but, for now, the negative consequences are mostly seen within the already struggling regional US banking sector. Nevertheless, here is our update on the situation.
After an optimistic start to the year, investor sentiment deteriorated slightly in February as a series of economic data challenged the rosy picture painted by markets.
Inflation was at the forefront of the news in 2022 and remains so as we enter 2023. In order to demystify this complex economic concept, this Strategic Report is presented in a “Question and Answer” format in which we endeavour to respond to the many queries – some simpler, others more complicated – inspired by discussions we have had with several investors over the past two years.
A guide to broad market and economic trends, our Flip Book should serve well as a reference guide for the busy investor. Make sure not to miss our Myths and Realities section, where we breakdown and debunk commonly held investment beliefs.
Our annual Long-Term Market Expectations report presents our return and volatility forecasts for the next five years. These go on to form the basis of our Capital Allocation Line, an important input into NBI’s Strategic Asset Allocation and portfolio construction effort.
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