CIO Office
Learn more about the markets, the economy and current trends in the financial industry.
World upside down | Base-Case Scenario | Spring 2025
In 2025, economic growth will be lower and inflation higher than expected due to increased U.S tariffs. Therefore, investors are encouraged to remain diversified rather than trying to anticipate an unpredictable U.S. administration. In this volatile environment, discover our new base case scenario, which maintains a balanced allocation between stocks and bonds.
Facts and Fiction | As of February 28, 2025
Selling in times of heightened uncertainty can protect investments from heavy losses? Should recessions be feared as they entail heavy financial losses? Is the ruling party decisive for the stock market? These are some of the common investment beliefs that our Chief Investment Office examines and puts into perspective.
Profound changes? | Asset Allocation Strategy | March 2025
Since President Trump took office, uncertainty has reached a new high. And yet, the market impact remains relatively limited, with the economic backdrop remaining fairly constructive but highly fragile. In these circumstances, it may be more appropriate to focus on diversification rather than high-concentration strategies. Consult our target asset allocation for more.
Five reference points in the fog of a tariff war | Quick Take | February 3, 2025
February 3 update (initial document published on January 31) - On February 1st, the new U.S. administration moved ahead with its threat to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, with the exception of energy products and critical minerals, which will be taxed at 10%, as will imports from China. This backdrop raises many questions. Let's highlight five key points for investors to keep in mind.
Long-Term Investment Perspectives | Fall 2024
In this semi-annual update, the projected annual return for a benchmark balanced portfolio over 5 years is 5.9%, down form the 7.5% achieved over the past 5 years. This forecast is slightly lower than the 6.1% anticipated last spring. Explore long-term market expectations for major asset classes across 5-year, 10-year and 30-year investment horizons.
Tactical asset allocation: Introducing NBAAM | Strategic report | April 2024
To guide its tactical asset allocation decisions, our CIO Office has been using the A3 model since 2018, the objective of which was to translate a series of macroeconomic and financial indicators into a risk-taking recommendation over a tactical horizon. This report introduces its successor, the NBAAM (National Bank Asset Allocation Model), which offers broader coverage of global macroeconomic conditions through a distinctive methodology. |
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