CIO Office 

Learn more about the markets, the economy and current trends in the financial industry.

Thumbnail of the section Base-case scenarios

Political clouds: for better or for worse | Base-Case Scenario | Winter 2025

Donald Trump's victory has boosted stock markets, but creates uncertainty for 2025. Maintaining a flexible investment strategy will be crucial as economic and political changes could present opportunities. As we look ahead to a year full of surprises, check out our latest base-case scenario.

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Outlook 2025: Mission accomplished? | Asset Allocation Strategy | December 2024

After more than two years of debate about the U.S. Federal Reserve's ability to achieve a soft landing for the U.S. economy, 2025 should determine whether what initially seemed like ‘mission impossible’ will ultimately be a ‘mission accomplished.’ With the new year on the horizon, uncover our CIO Office's key predictions.

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Thumbnail of the section Quick Takes

The return of Donald Trump | Quick Take | November 6, 2024

After months of a campaign full of twists and turns, it was finally Donald Trump who was chosen as the next President of the United States by a majority of American voters. On the markets, the initial reaction aligned with expectations for a decisive Republican victory. With this in mind, let's take a brief look at some of the key issues from an investor's perspective.

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Thumbnail of the section Long-Term Market Expectations

Long-Term Investment Perspectives | Fall 2024

In this semi-annual update, the projected annual return for a benchmark balanced portfolio over 5 years is 5.9%, down form the 7.5% achieved over the past 5 years. This forecast is slightly lower than the 6.1% anticipated last spring. Explore long-term market expectations for major asset classes across 5-year, 10-year and 30-year investment horizons.

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Thumbnail of the section Long-Term Market Expectations

Myths and Realities | As of September 30, 2024

Staying on the sidelines waiting for a market correction? Are rate hikes bad for stocks? Does stock performance correlate with the political party in power? These are some of the common investment beliefs that our CIO Office fact-checks and puts into perspective.

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Thumbnail of the section Strategic Reports

Tactical asset allocation: Introducing NBAAM | Strategic report | April 2024

To guide its tactical asset allocation decisions, our CIO Office has been using the A3 model since 2018, the objective of which was to translate a series of macroeconomic and financial indicators into a risk-taking recommendation over a tactical horizon. This report introduces its successor, the NBAAM (National Bank Asset Allocation Model,) which offers broader coverage of global macroeconomic conditions through a distinctive methodology.

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