CIO Office
Learn more about the markets, the economy and current trends in the financial industry.
Political clouds: for better or for worse | Base-Case Scenario | Winter 2025
Donald Trump's victory has boosted stock markets, but creates uncertainty for 2025. Maintaining a flexible investment strategy will be crucial as economic and political changes could present opportunities. As we look ahead to a year full of surprises, check out our latest base-case scenario.
Outlook 2025: Mission accomplished? | Asset Allocation Strategy | December 2024
After more than two years of debate about the U.S. Federal Reserve's ability to achieve a soft landing for the U.S. economy, 2025 should determine whether what initially seemed like ‘mission impossible’ will ultimately be a ‘mission accomplished.’ With the new year on the horizon, uncover our CIO Office's key predictions.
The return of Donald Trump | Quick Take | November 6, 2024
After months of a campaign full of twists and turns, it was finally Donald Trump who was chosen as the next President of the United States by a majority of American voters. On the markets, the initial reaction aligned with expectations for a decisive Republican victory. With this in mind, let's take a brief look at some of the key issues from an investor's perspective.
Long-Term Investment Perspectives | Fall 2024
In this semi-annual update, the projected annual return for a benchmark balanced portfolio over 5 years is 5.9%, down form the 7.5% achieved over the past 5 years. This forecast is slightly lower than the 6.1% anticipated last spring. Explore long-term market expectations for major asset classes across 5-year, 10-year and 30-year investment horizons.
Myths and Realities | As of September 30, 2024
Staying on the sidelines waiting for a market correction? Are rate hikes bad for stocks? Does stock performance correlate with the political party in power? These are some of the common investment beliefs that our CIO Office fact-checks and puts into perspective.
Tactical asset allocation: Introducing NBAAM | Strategic report | April 2024
To guide its tactical asset allocation decisions, our CIO Office has been using the A3 model since 2018, the objective of which was to translate a series of macroeconomic and financial indicators into a risk-taking recommendation over a tactical horizon. This report introduces its successor, the NBAAM (National Bank Asset Allocation Model,) which offers broader coverage of global macroeconomic conditions through a distinctive methodology. |
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